Showing posts with label presidential. Show all posts
Showing posts with label presidential. Show all posts

Predicted U.S. President John McCain leading

This is what Nostradamus and I had in mind all along when we predicted the underdog to win: After strong victories in Virginia, Maryland and Washington, DC, I put together an analysis of the state of the race for the Republican nomination. Including the delegates won last Tuesday, John McCain is now close to securing the number of delegates needed to be the presumptive Republican nominee. In addition, it is now mathematically and politically impossible for Mike Huckabee to win enough delegates to secure the Republican nomination; there simply aren’t enough delegates left at stake for him to win. Take a look at the following chart:


The official McCain message at this point: »We’ve won some exciting contests over the last two months, but the challenge is not over – we must continue to spread John McCain’s conservative message of lowering taxes, strengthening our economy, winning the war in Iraq, and fighting radical Islamic extremists. There is a lot of work ahead.«

Upcoming states:
Wisconsin, Washington, Ohio, Texas, Vermont and Rhode Island.


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New lines and bets

  1. Party to win 2008 Presidential Election:

    Democratic Party: 1.48
    Republican Party: 2.60
    Any other party: 26.00

  2. Who will be President 2008?

    Hillary Clinton 2.25
    John McCain 3.25
    Barack Obama 3.50
    Mitt Romney 8.50
    Rudy Giuliani 8.50
    Mike Huckabee 21.00
    John Edwards 26.00
    Michael Bloomberg 31.00
    Ron Paul 81.00

To close with an update I can report that odds for McCain as the Republican Candidate for President 2008 dropped just another little bit, down to 1.74 now. Whoever likes to believe the public and bookmakers may be happy with my prediction so far, but don't forget that my prediction was made way before the primary in South Carolina and before the public finally followed.
Odds for Hillary Clinton as Candidate 2008 are falling as well, now down to 1.45 - but she doesn't matter in my prediction, so lets skip it.
There are still no bets available on who will be the next U.S. Vice President though - way to go, have a nice one!