Predicted U.S. President John McCain leading

This is what Nostradamus and I had in mind all along when we predicted the underdog to win: After strong victories in Virginia, Maryland and Washington, DC, I put together an analysis of the state of the race for the Republican nomination. Including the delegates won last Tuesday, John McCain is now close to securing the number of delegates needed to be the presumptive Republican nominee. In addition, it is now mathematically and politically impossible for Mike Huckabee to win enough delegates to secure the Republican nomination; there simply aren’t enough delegates left at stake for him to win. Take a look at the following chart:

The official McCain message at this point: »We’ve won some exciting contests over the last two months, but the challenge is not over – we must continue to spread John McCain’s conservative message of lowering taxes, strengthening our economy, winning the war in Iraq, and fighting radical Islamic extremists. There is a lot of work ahead.«

Upcoming states:
Wisconsin, Washington, Ohio, Texas, Vermont and Rhode Island.

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Mike Huckabee costs them dearly

Only a few weeks ago Mike Huckabee was the funny religious guy who may well drop out first, surely before McCain who himself then might become Giuliani's Vice President. Now look where we really stand. Shouldn't some analytic journalists be robbed of their pencils and go back to school? They haven't been right in any point they wrote and we read about. Yet they sold their products and made good money anyway. In other industries heads would roll, not so in the media.

So now we're stucked with these commentators, and in addition with Mike Huckabee, for another while.
But what is the big fuss about the Reverand with the lisence to baptize anyone? If in the end he can't do any harm because he really can't win it all, as we're promised, so why the effort to not count what needs to be counted, like in Washington, e.g.?
Why all that downplay Mike Huckabee would just have the time of his life and great fun, but soon he will quit? I don't see the man having too much fun, do you? In fact lately I don't see him laughing at all while he vows to stay »until someone has 1,191 delegates« finally. And how about his campaign who worked for enthusiasm instead of payments - was it all just for temporary fun? Don't they know where the next Disney-World is located?

Whatever it is, John McCain's people are getting nervous, some of them even a lot. And they repeat over and over that Huckabee doesn't have a chance. Well, he doesn't. So why getting nervous anyway?

My guess is that just like Rudy Giuliani the Republican front-runner John McCain is holding back some nice sums of campaign money he doesn't want to spend on upcoming primaries. He is saving up to bring it into the general election race, tens of millions probably all together and legally, as I should point out. And a stubbern Mike Huckabee costs him now dearly, while it is not too easy anymore to just pump in new money. Even a Karl Rove couldn't contribute to McCain more than his $2,300 on the last weekend, which equals the maximum amount an individual is permitted to contribute under Federal Election Commission rules. Just the fact how Karl Rove did donate his obolus right at this time of John McCain's campaign may show where the real problem with Huckabee lays, even before Hillary or/and Obama come into play.

Bush: McCain is a ‘true conservative’

President Bush said today that there is »no doubt« in his mind that presumptive Republican presidential nominee Senator John McCain is a »true conservative.«
»I know his convictions. I know the principles that drive him,« Bush said in an interview with Fox News Sunday, adding, »Look, he’s very strong on national defense. He’s tough fiscally. He believes that tax cuts ought to be permanent. He’s pro-life. I mean… his principles are sound and solid as far as I’m concerned.«

However, Bush acknowledged that the Arizona senator »has got some convincing to do to convince people that he is a solid conservative.« The president, who has not taken sides in the nominating contest, added that he would help John McCain make that case to conservatives, if the senator is chosen to carry the party’s banner.

»Primaries tend to divide up the parties, and there’s a period of time in which the candidate who is in the process of becoming the leader of a party must work to bring as much of the party together as possible,« Bush said. »That’s just the normal course of primary politics.«


Overview: U.S. presidential prediction 2008

Now, what does all the before said has to do with me and this weblog? It effects my prediction and did so from the beginning. As I mentioned, I have no political motivation in the whole U.S. presidential election scenario - I won't be voting or running for president anyway. But I do have my desire to continue getting bets alright for sure.

Remember, there was a need for George W. Bush to stay another four years in office last time he won elections. To the surprise of all he decided back then to make Dick Cheney once more his running mate. And even though his chances to win the election in November 2004 were like sero, he managed anyway. Because those behind him succeeded. We all, including the current President himself, know that Mr. Bush's intellectual abilities are somehow very limited, which is most certainly not his personal fault. He alone couldn't even win an election if he was to be the only candidate around, I guess. But those behind him could, they had to and they did it against all odds.

These same people need now a President McCain and a proper Vice President in order to stay protected from criminal court procedures after 2008, where an Obama, the Clintons or even any Republican of not their own (like Huckabee, e.g.) could and would open the whole 9/11 case wide again if by mistake taking over power in the White House.

I trust them to get their job done more than I trust the American voters and that is why I President McCain right away.

So what's next? As for now John McCain can't afford to name his running mate in public, there are righter moments to come. He must win time and first of all much more general support within his own party. He will announce his choice not too soon but more likely as late as possible. And that might take quite a while. Only when there is a point of no return for every Republican he will make his surprising announcement, following a Giuliani-styled advice from 2nd January this year: »A vice president has to be a partner in the administration. The vice president has to know everything that's going on, just in case.«

Other things which play a role in my overall prediction:

The late announcement from John McCain about his running mate is a strategic possibility for him to keep the Republicans in the media instead of leaving it all to the Democrats and their internal warfare over the next months. McCain might even tell that he won't make up his mind until the Democrats have a nominee.

Voter turnout on election day is a key issue and a weak point for Republicans so far; a smart choice of the VP is the greatest chance to bring them out anyway.

If the Democrats bring in any order both Clintons and the highflying Barack Obama plus Ophrah into the general elections, John McCain will have to bring a waterprooved name with him.

Another boost for predicted President McCain

predicted President John McCain
As former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney drops out of the 2008 U.S. presidential election race, »suspending his campaign«, there is no doubt anymore: John McCain is the Republican nominee for the general elections. That finally takes my prediction officially a huge step forward while Hillary Rodman Clinton and Barack Hussein Obama are still out there for a longer qualification fight, internal warfare that is, just to cost each other a few more feathers, I guess... until April.

U.S. Democrats, as enthusiastic as they're campaigning, must be a bit jealous to see the Republicans settle their nomination in unity and early without messing around too much.

shake handsAs for Mitt Romney, who served the best news possible to John McCain, Nostradamus and me today, I must admit he impressed me a lot. Not only as a look-a-like candidate to former U.S. President George H. W. Bush, but also as a politician, a campaigner and the gentleman he is. However, he isn't the predicted and therefore can't be president for now; so sorry. But: I will very much consider him for any future prediction, I might in fact start to design a prediction weblog for him right away, if you excuse me...

With Nostradamus 2008 between predictions and true US Presidents

The front-runners for the general presidential race seem to be elected as predicted, even though the race is far from over yet, thanks to procedures and those who don't want to have it otherwise. Most votes in primaries and caucuses to help select Democratic and Republican nominees for president are in and trends are hard to ignore. Some do so anyway. Winners are afraid to be mistaken somehow and losers too much in desperate hope. But one fact nobody can deny: John McCain is the big winner so far, untouchable I would say. Am I just lucky that Master Nostradamus endorsed my prediction about the next US President just in time, somewhen between 1555 and 2008?
Whatever one thinks about Nostradamus's prophecy I wish he would've tipped us off a bit for a Vice President prediction - but he didn't, not with a single line or word.

Back to Super-Tuesday: Who else was super besides John McCain, Nostradamus and me? The Clintons did their part I guess, not giving me a reason to change yesterday's mind. But not all are so very satisfied with themselves and some of those aren't at all worth to be listened to today, I guess. Take for example Michael Medved's column in USA TODAY, which I just had to skip to not read it all. He started with »The only safe prediction about campaign 2008 is that no prediction is safe« and it didn't sound like the smallest chance for a Happy End; maybe I read it later.
Next I skipped was Lindsey Boerma; she still asks herself who would make the front-runner for the Democrats, just to answer it under her »superprediction«-url with »My opinion? It won’t be Clinton.« Oh well. Let her be right or wrong, who cares - checking with my blog's subject I must admit it is really not of my business, is it?!

So as for now I'm only happy with front-runner John McCain: Elected as predicted, next please! Which brings me back to the Vice President candidates - there are still no bookmakers' odds available when it comes to decent bets on the 2008 US Vice President as good things seem to take their time.

US President predictions and odds

While Rasmussen's poll watch reports data that gives John McCain an 88.7% chance of winning the Republican nomination, leaving Mitt Romney at 9.8%: I have added today a link to this blog about all updated Vice President betting odds for open bets concerning the ongoing 2008 Presidential race in the USA. But I still can't find any bookmaker's offer about VP odds and the next US Vice President to be chosen - there are simply no such bets available yet, despite all existing VP predictions.

EDIT: All updated Vice President Betting Odds

In the same context there aren't many serious predictions around on who will be America's next Vice President. Sure, in some online discussions one can find opinions about who should be McCain's VP (Vice President), but that is actually far away from predicting. Those discussions are of a fairly calm nature, I must say, and often not more than a couple of monologues; to be honest I don't even know most of the named politicians there. However, Condoleeza Rice gets mentioned quite a few times as she would serve women and black voters in one person.
The bookmakers will love her and her vice president odds, I guess: as a trap. I would really like to see some bookmakers' odds by now.

Here we go, bookmakers' odds are finally in; these odds come directly from Las Vegas and certainly will move around a lot in coming days, weeks and months - here is an always updated LINK that keeps live connection to the betting market for 2008 presidential elections in U.S. of America - good luck to all!